When Jamie Dimon is concerned but doesn’t want to sound alarmed, he uses a specific tone. It can be heard in the 48-page new shareholder letter that was made public on Monday along with JPMorgan’s annual report. It’s the voice of a man who knows when something feels structurally different but has witnessed too many crises to be dramatic about the next one. Additionally, there seems to be a change this year.
For the past few yearly letters, Dimon has been dealing with a sort of developing anxiety. In 2022, the issue was Ukraine and the impending “restructuring of the global order.” The Silicon Valley Bank failed in 2023, and he thought the fallout would last “for years to come.” He made a sharp turn toward economic catastrophe last year, with stickier inflation, dwindling liquidity, and higher interest rates than the markets were willing to acknowledge.
| Profile | Details |
|---|---|
| Name | Jamie Dimon |
| Born | March 13, 1956, New York City |
| Position | Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co. |
| Tenure as CEO | Since 2005 (longest-serving big-bank CEO in the U.S.) |
| Education | Tufts University (BA, Psychology and Economics); Harvard Business School (MBA) |
| Estimated Net Worth | Roughly $2.5 billion |
| Bank’s Total Assets | Over $4 trillion |
| Annual Shareholder Letter | Released alongside the 2025 annual report |
| Known For | Surviving 2008, pushing through SVB turbulence, blunt geopolitical commentary |
| Current Concern | Iran war, sticky inflation, global supply chain reshaping |
A single crisis was highlighted in each letter. Since the United States is no longer observing from a distance, this one attempts to hold them all at once. It is, according to him, a combatant. “The ongoing war in Ukraine, the conflict between Iran and both the United States and Israel, and other major hostilities across the globe should permanently dispel the illusion that the world is safe.” About one-third of the way through the letter, that sentence doesn’t sound like a forecast. It sounds like a man shutting a door.
For a CEO, his defense of the war itself is remarkably straightforward. He asked why the West had put up with a regime that had, in his words, its “throat on the Strait of Hormuz” for so long in an interview with Axios earlier this month.He hedges, of course, as he goes on to describe nuclear proliferation as “the gravest threat to the future of mankind” and argues that the Iranian threat must be addressed “urgently.” “Time will tell whether the current war in Iran achieves our short-term and long-term objectives.” However, the hedge is weak. He sounds like a man who has made up his mind.
He hasn’t made a decision about how the war will affect the economy, and no one seems to be able to. Here, Dimon does something subtly out of the ordinary. He presents a largely optimistic picture of 2026, with tax cuts and deregulation predicted to boost GDP by about $300 billion, AI investment boosting productivity, and the U.S. economy on stronger ground than it has been in years. Then he says, “None of that may matter,” and flips the page.
The war, he says, is causing “the potential for significant ongoing oil and commodity price shocks, along with the reshaping of global supply chains, which may lead to stickier inflation and ultimately higher interest rates than markets currently expect.” The famous Dimon hedge comes next: “Then again, it may not.” It’s almost amusing, but it’s not. Fertilizer, helium, shipbuilding, food, and farming are all affected in ways that go beyond crude. Almost everything is entangled in a global supply chain.
The letter contains a phrase that is already being discussed at trading desks. He refers to the gradual increase in inflation as “the skunk at the garden party.”” A thin, bright line. The kind a banker uses when he’s sick of being courteous. He claims that interest rates are “like gravity to almost all asset prices.” And ultimately, gravity prevails.
The way Dimon discusses the tipping point—not whether one exists, but how many more straws the camel can carry—is difficult to ignore. Yes, the U.S. economy may not be as vulnerable as it once was. As long as growth continues and interest rates remain reasonable, government debt is currently manageable. The fact that the rest of the world appears to be in worse shape contributes to the high stock prices. However, he reminds us that feelings can change suddenly. “Human nature has not changed.”
That final section is what sticks out. Dimon does not anticipate a crash. He says he can hear something on the other side of the door while pointing at it.