A specific type of signal, a subtle institutional change that only becomes apparent in retrospect, often gets lost in the cacophony of a weak market. One of those changes was made by Goldman Sachs last week. After months of unrelenting decline, analyst James Yaro speculated that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices might have found their floor in a note that went viral on March 26.
Like most Goldman calls, the call was measured and appropriately cautious about trading volumes and short-term risks. However, the direction was clear. The most closely watched bank on Wall Street was cautiously hinting that the worst might be behind us.
| Field | Details |
|---|---|
| Institution | Goldman Sachs Group Inc. — Assets under supervision: ~$3 trillion |
| CEO | David Solomon (recently disclosed personal Bitcoin holdings — a reversal of prior stance) |
| Lead analyst | James Yaro — Goldman Sachs crypto equity analyst |
| Call made | March 26–28, 2026 — Bitcoin prices “may have troughed” |
| Bitcoin decline from peak | ▼ ~46% from October 2025 all-time high |
| Bitcoin price at call | ~$60,000–$67,000 range (trading sideways 60K–75K for ~1 month) |
| Goldman top stock picks | Coinbase, Robinhood, Figure Technologies All rated BUY |
| Figure Technologies price target | Raised to $42 (from $39) — implying ~35% upside |
| Volume warning | ⚠ Low volume risk — could cut 2026 revenue ~2%, profits ~4% |
| Expected trough duration | Historically ~3 months of low trading volume before rebound |
| Bernstein year-end BTC target | $150,000 — citing ETF flows & institutional confidence |
| Reference / official | Goldman Sachs official — goldmansachs.com |
The note’s language wasn’t the only thing that made the moment feel truly different. The fact that David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman, recently revealed that he owns Bitcoin was another factor. That particular detail has not gotten the attention it merits. This is the same David Solomon who, not too long ago, expressed public skepticism about cryptocurrencies and questioned their usefulness in ways that would have satisfied any conventional central banker. Something made him reconsider. The fact that he altered it at all and then publicly stated so carries more weight than a research note alone, even though it’s unclear exactly when and why.
Throughout all of this, Bitcoin has been doing something technically intriguing. Following a roughly 46% decline from its October 2025 highs to the $60,000 range, the price has been trading in a relatively narrow range between $60,000 and $75,000 for the past month. In reality, bottoming processes often resemble that kind of sideways grind, as frustrating as it may seem to anyone waiting for a clear direction.
Weeks of prices essentially stagnating while the market silently assesses the damage, rather than a sharp turnabout or a single pivotal moment of surrender. The distribution pressure that followed October’s peak seems to be lessening, according to K33 Research, which monitors ETF flows and long-term holder behavior. Since late February, ETF flows have slightly improved. Long-term investors aren’t selling.
However, it is important to pay attention to Goldman’s warning regarding trading volumes. Yaro noted that the market is more prone to abrupt changes in either direction due to the current low liquidity environment, and that these periods of low volume in cryptocurrency typically last three months before conditions return to normal.
Things might start moving again in the late spring or early summer if that timeline is accurate. That’s not a promise. It’s a historical pattern, and cryptocurrency has a history of disregarding historical patterns at the wrong time. The framework is still helpful, though. It implies that even if the price bottom is in, it might take a little longer for the volume recovery to occur, along with sustainable momentum.
In this context, it is worthwhile to look at the stocks Goldman is supporting. Figure Technologies, Robinhood, and Coinbase all have “buy” ratings; Figure’s price target has been raised from $39 to $42, suggesting a 35% increase. Figure runs a blockchain-based home equity lending company that is closely linked to the digital finance infrastructure rather than being a purely cryptocurrency venture.
Silently, Robinhood has been branching out into more advanced financial services. Despite its difficult period, Coinbase appears to be attempting to grow beyond an exchange by venturing into derivatives, banking, and equity trading. Goldman’s readiness to support all three, despite cautioning about revenue pressure, comes across as thoughtful rather than instinctive.
For its part, Bernstein has gone farther than Goldman is prepared to make public. Citing ongoing ETF inflows, rising corporate treasury demand, and what it characterizes as institutional confidence holding steady despite the drawdown, the firm maintains a $150,000 year-end price target for Bitcoin. The existence of Strategy, which has about $53.5 billion in Bitcoin despite its stock plummeting, is used as proof that the underlying demand hasn’t vanished but has simply become silent.
As this develops, there’s a sense that the narrative surrounding Bitcoin is in the midst of a gradual but significant change. It’s not the existential panic of the 2022 collapse, nor the speculative frenzy of 2021, but rather something in between: a market attempting to settle into a new version of itself, where Goldman Sachs CEOs covertly acknowledge they own some and Goldman Sachs analysts write about price troughs. That is not insignificant. It’s actually quite a bit for anyone who remembers what the mainstream financial establishment used to say about Bitcoin.
As usual, timing is the catch. It is much simpler to determine the approximate location of the bottom than to determine the exact start of the recovery.