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Home»Markets»Fake news distribution via mobile devices increases market crash risk
Markets

Fake news distribution via mobile devices increases market crash risk

By Daniel BrooksFebruary 24, 20265 Mins Read
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Financial markets are experiencing unprecedented volatility as viral social media posts and smartphone-driven panic fuel extreme trading behavior among retail investors. Market volatility sparked by sensationalized content on platforms like X has emerged as a serious threat to global economic stability, with experts warning that unverified digital narratives could trigger substantial equity corrections that actively harm GDP growth.

The latest turbulence follows a weekend blog post from Citrini Research that rapidly spread across social media, outlining a hypothetical scenario where artificial intelligence displaces white-collar workers and pushes U.S. unemployment above 10% by 2028. The post described a potential 38% stock market correction driven by what it termed “ghost GDP,” where corporate automation continues but human consumption collapses entirely.

Social Media Fuels Market Volatility

According to Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, a fundamental disconnect now exists between empirical economic data and public sentiment. Donovan recently observed that people increasingly judge economic conditions through sensationalized smartphone content rather than actual economic realities. This creates dangerous conditions where fictional scenarios can morph into market-moving events as they circulate across mobile devices.

The Citrini post, despite being explicitly framed as a hypothetical scenario rather than a firm prediction, exemplifies how viral content can influence trading decisions. Financial analysts noted the market remains jittery following the recent SaaSpocalypse, which wiped over $2 trillion from software-as-a-service valuations after new AI capabilities appeared to threaten their business models. Additionally, similar viral essays from AI executive Matt Shumer comparing the current moment to February 2020 before the COVID pandemic have amplified investor anxiety.

Retail Investors Wield Unprecedented Power

The current vulnerability is significantly amplified by changing market demographics, as retail investors now represent a dominant force in equity markets. In 2025, individual retail investors accounted for a record $5.4 trillion in trading activity across stocks and ETFs, according to industry data. These investors, once dismissed as “dumb money,” now make split-second financial decisions through mobile trading apps based largely on social media feeds and online chat groups.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told the Associated Press that retail trading activity has reached critical mass. He noted that when enough individual investors act collectively, they can move markets substantially. However, when these digitally connected traders respond en masse to sensationalized smartphone content, the consequences extend beyond markets into the real economy.

Economists Warn of Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Meanwhile, leading economists are sounding alarms about markets talking themselves into a downturn. Goldman Sachs warned this week that a sharp stock market correction represents the most significant downside risk to its 2026 GDP growth forecast. Economist Pierfrancesco Mei estimated that a 10% equity price drop sustained through the second quarter would reduce U.S. GDP growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points.

Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok warned Tuesday that tail risks are rising for the U.S. economy. In his widely-read Daily Spark analysis, Slok noted that predicting AI adoption and productivity remains particularly challenging. If AI fails to meet expectations or triggers sharp unemployment increases, he indicated this could have disruptive impacts on financial markets and economic growth.

Mark Zandi, top economist at Moody’s Analytics, echoed these concerns about speculation-driven market movements. According to Zandi, markets appear increasingly tainted by speculation rather than fundamentals. He warned that when markets move dramatically based on unsubstantiated rumors, causality reverses and falling asset prices threaten an already vulnerable economy.

Viral Scenarios Lack Economic Foundation

Ironically, several prominent economists have criticized the viral narratives triggering market volatility as economically incoherent. Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times noted that the Citrini scenario ignores basic national accounting identities. If AI generates massive output, he argued, something on the demand side like consumption or investment must also be rising, otherwise there would be no market for AI-generated goods.

Tyler Cowen, an influential economist and blogger at Marginal Revolution, called the aggregate demand collapse scenario incorrect from the start. Cowen argued that in any scenario where AI produces significantly more goods and services, income would be generated and prices would adjust accordingly. He noted that while income distribution might create social discomfort, aggregate demand cannot simply disappear when supply increases dramatically.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, warned that workers are more anxious, investors more herdlike, and markets more vulnerable to shocks than headlines suggest. UBS’s Donovan similarly argued that economic perceptions no longer match economic realities, with consumers focusing on select price increases while ignoring broader improvements in living standards and purchasing power.

Despite recent volatility, the S&P 500 remains less than 2% below levels from a month ago and recently hit all-time highs. Market watchers have noted a rotation from technology stocks toward “HALO” investments—heavy assets with low obsolescence—suggesting investors are hedging rather than panicking wholesale. However, uncertainty persists about whether smartphone-driven market psychology will stabilize or continue driving erratic trading patterns in coming months.

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