When a major bank finally says what everyone has been silently thinking for a long time, a certain kind of silence descends upon the trading floor. Nearly at that time, on April 6, 2026, JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman issued a stark, data-driven call stating that Tesla shares, at their current price of about $361, could be on the verge of a 60% collapse. Brinkman’s price target was set at $145. Yahoo Finance It’s not a small change. That’s a decision.
JP Morgan Chase is the biggest bank in the US in terms of assets, and Brinkman has covered Tesla since 2014. TECHi® Therefore, it’s important to pay attention to what this analyst is actually saying rather than just the headline figure when he reiterates an Underweight rating with such conviction. His argument’s main points are straightforward.
| Tesla, Inc. — Key Information | |
|---|---|
| Full Name | Tesla, Inc. |
| Founded | July 1, 2003 |
| Headquarters | Austin, Texas, USA |
| CEO | Elon Musk (since 2008) |
| Stock Ticker | NASDAQ: TSLA |
| Current Share Price (approx.) | ~$352–$361 |
| Market Capitalization | ~$1.3 Trillion |
| JP Morgan Price Target | $145 (Underweight rating) |
| HSBC Price Target | $131 (Reduce rating) |
| Q1 2026 Deliveries | 358,023 vehicles |
| Q1 2026 Production | 408,386 vehicles |
| Unsold Inventory (Q1 2026) | ~164,000 units (record high) |
| YTD Stock Performance | Down ~20% |
| Primary Analyst Warning | Ryan Brinkman, JP Morgan Chase |
| Key Future Bets | Cybercab robotaxi, Optimus humanoid robot, Terafab chip plant |
| 2026 Capex Plan | $20 billion (potentially up to $45B per Morgan Stanley) |
In the first quarter, Tesla produced more than 408,000 cars, but only 358,000 were delivered, leaving more than 50,000 unsold in a single quarter. According to JP Morgan, the total number of unsold Tesla vehicles worldwide has now reached a record 164,000. Financially speaking, the math doesn’t remain silent for long when a company produces cars more quickly than consumers purchase them.
Some of Tesla’s ardent supporters might interpret these figures as a brief spike in demand rather than a structural breakdown. However, that is more difficult to accept given the historical background. Analyst consensus in June 2022 predicted that Tesla would ship 1.366 million cars by this year’s first quarter. The real number was slightly over 358,000, which is a miss of more than 70%.
Nevertheless, the stock increased by about 50% during that same period. Wall Street’s forecasts for Tesla’s earnings and revenue have been declining since mid-2022, but the stock has risen in tandem with those declining estimates, Quartz; this divergence must eventually be resolved.
Tesla experienced its first annual revenue decline in the first quarter, with net income down 61% from the same period last year, automotive revenue down 11%, and full-year deliveries declining. Revenue from energy storage increased by 25%, making it a rare bright spot. Quartz With a market capitalization of $1.3 trillion, that is a complex picture. From a distance, it appears that the market has been showing a great deal of patience, which is beginning to show signs of exhaustion.
In addition to streamlining, Tesla discontinued the Model S and Model X to create space in the factory for a domestic robot that some have likened to Musk’s Mars colony. This robot is ambitious, eye-catching, and far from real.
AutoNotion The shift to robotaxis and humanoid robots may prove to be visionary in the end, but the cost is staggering. Morgan Stanley estimates that the actual start-up costs for the Terafab chip plant could be as high as $35 to $45 billion, contrary to Musk’s initial estimate of $20 to $25 billion. Tradingkey There is no rounding error in the amount of money needed to move Tesla from where it is now to where Musk wants it to be.
As of early 2026, sales across five major markets had decreased by about 44% year over year, and Tesla’s European registrations had decreased for 13 consecutive months. TECHi® This is not the kind of regional softness that a business ignores; rather, it represents a significant, long-term decline in its core Western market.
Shares could drop to $131, according to HSBC analyst Mike Tyndall, who has reaffirmed his “reduce” rating. It is difficult to write off the fact that two significant banks are currently coming to similar bearish conclusions using different models and approaches.
A California robotaxi launch by June 30 is priced at just 11% on prediction market platform Polymarket, and Tesla recorded zero autonomous test miles in California in 2025 for the sixth consecutive year. Benzinga It’s still unclear whether Cybercab production can start on a large scale and whether regulatory approvals, such as those for Full Self-Driving that are currently pending in Europe, will materialize in a timely manner.
Wall Street bulls continue to defend Tesla’s valuation by citing Optimus and autonomous driving. For a company whose recent track record on timeliness has been, to put it mildly, inconsistent, that argument requires a lot of things to go right, quickly.
Just ten of the 54 analysts who cover Tesla have a negative rating for the company’s stock. Quartz This indicates that the vast majority of Wall Street professionals are still positive and willing to support Tesla’s potential. The tension between a $145 price target and a consensus that still sees the stock rising from here is difficult to ignore. Eventually, one of those opinions will be shown to be utterly incorrect. As Brinkman would say, the math is harsh. Furthermore, math doesn’t compromise like optimism does.